We’re maintaining our Gold rating on Michael Hasenstab's fund, which is among the boldest world-bond funds we cover.
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Templeton Global Bond is among the boldest entrants in the world-bond Morningstar Category. Notably, its emerging-markets-heavy profile has caused it to move in sync with riskier assets and sport one of the highest correlations to equities in the group. And its shorts on the yen and euro are a significant drag when those currencies strengthen against the U.S. dollar. However, manager Michael Hasenstab's investment themes and shrewd bond and currency selection have led to topnotch long-term performance. His experience, a skilled and generally stable analyst bench, the fund's consistent approach, and reasonable fees earn this fund a Morningstar Analyst Rating of Gold.
The fund has almost no exposure to the debt of the United States, eurozone, and Japan, which dominate most peer funds' portfolios. It also stands out for its significant, and longtime, bets against the euro and yen which Hasenstab believes are set to weaken on the back of further quantitative easing. Instead, he has preferred emerging-markets issues and currencies (roughly two thirds of debt exposure and four fifths of currency exposure as of August 2016) given what he views as those countries' better fiscal prospects. Where the fund looks less daring, however, is its interest-rate risk. Hasenstab believes global inflation pressures could lead to permanent loss of capital, which led him to further reduce duration to 0.2 years as of August down from roughly one year in late 2014.
Hasenstab has also shown a willingness to buy what the rest of the market shuns: He loaded up on Irish bonds in the depths of the 2011 eurozone crisis, and bought up even shakier Hungarian debt. As Mexican and Brazilian debt sold off in 2015's third quarter, Hasenstab took the fund's stakes in those countries and their currencies up by several percentage points by the end of the year. Moves like that have led to sharp, short-term sell-offs, but over time, long-term-focused investors have been amply rewarded. Since Hasenstab took over as lead manager in December 2006 through September 2016, the fund's 6.1% annualized return ranked second out of 46 distinct peers.
Process Pillar: Positive | Karin Anderson 10/31/2016
Michael Hasenstab doesn't construct this portfolio with traditional issuance-weighted global-bond benchmarks in mind, which are skewed toward the world's most indebted developed markets. Instead, he and his team aim to identify value among currencies, sovereign credit, and interest rates in countries with healthy or improving fundamentals that they think the market underappreciates. The contrarian-minded group attempts to find those opportunities early on and then watch as their theses unfold over several years. The fund has held a double-digit stake in South Korea's government bonds since 2004, for example. Hasenstab doesn't require fiscal perfection, just improving trends. In the depths of 2011's eurozone crisis, he established a position in Ireland's government debt, arguing that Irish authorities had made strides toward fiscal sustainability that were not priced in.
The fund's significant and patient currency bets distinguish it, as well. Since late 2009, Hasenstab has maintained a short Japanese yen position (39% as of August 2016) as a hedge against an eventual rise in U.S. interest rates and a strengthening U.S. dollar. Over the same time frame he's shorted the euro, a position that stood at the higher end of its historical range (46%) reflecting the team's views that the ECB would continue in its program of quantitative easing. Overall, the fund's patient approach and the manager's eye for value earn a Positive Process rating.
Manager Michael Hasenstab has generally avoided low-yielding sovereign bonds of developed countries hindered by overindebtedness and has focused on emerging-markets debt and currencies. As of August 2016, roughly two thirds of the fund's debt exposure was in emerging markets while around four fifths of its currency exposure came from the developing world. He continues to emphasize well-run economies with direct and indirect exposure to China's economic strength in Asia (South Korea, Indonesia, and India). Controversial positions are also common here: Hasenstab built positions in Ireland and Hungary in 2011 when both faced significant headwinds, and he stuck with a low-single-digit stake in conflict-torn Ukraine in 2014 and into 2015 as the country restructured its debt and still holds the position (5%).
Another defining trait of the fund in recent years has been Hasenstab's focus on short-dated bonds. Arguing that the loose monetary policy maintained by the developed world's central banks should ultimately unleash inflationary pressures globally, he's maintained the fund's duration below two years since early 2011, and reduced it even further to 0.2 years as of August 2016. Over the past few years, around one third of its assets were invested in bonds maturing within one year while the fund's cash level has clocked in at a midteens to high-20% stake.