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Tuttle Tactical Management Weekly Market Notes

Tuttle Tactical Management, LLC is an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. You should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this letter serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from Tuttle ...


Current Market
Matthew Tuttle

More of the same this week, one day the market is up, the next day it is down.  The real action is going on in the bond market as global bonds are selling off in a big way.  Our Trend Aggregation Income Strategy moved into inverse Treasuries to start the month so we have been able to profit from the decline.  At some point the bull market in bonds will end, and when it does it will look like this.  However, this looks more like bonds being overbought and correcting than the end of the bull market.  Either way it turns out we will be prepared.

What is going on in the bond market is concerning for stocks.  Stocks don’t like volatility in other asset classes, as we saw when oil sold off.  Today is a perfect example, bonds started off up big and the S&P looked set to rally.  Then bonds turned, causing stocks to turn.

Most of our indicators for stocks are still positive, however a number of our counter trend models are now indicating the market is overbought in the short term.

Barometer Trend
S&P 500 Counter Trend Bearish
Small Cap Counter Trend Bearish
NASDAQ Counter Trend Mixed
Intermediate Term Momentum Mostly Bullish
Short Term Momentum Mostly Bullish
Stock/Treasury Model Bullish
Earnings Model Bearish
Global Model Dollar Hedged EM
Dollar Hedged Japan
Today we are doing some more selling as two more of our counter trend models moved negative.  In TUTT we are reducing exposure to the S&P 500 and moving net stock exposure  to 49%. Our 500 Strategy and Trend Aggregation Ultra are also reducing S&P 500 exposure.  Our NASDAQ Strategy is reducing exposure to the NASDAQ.

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